The colors of Jamaika... after the election
For those who didn't follow: The currently reigning SPD (the Reds) lost 4.2 percent and is only the second-strongest party in the upcoming parliament. Their major rival, the conservative CDU (the Blacks) were already near 50% in the pre-election survey, but has lost this pro-turn spirit over the last week. In the end they ended up at 35.2 percent - only 0.9 points difference to the SPD.
In the night from sunday to monday everything was looking as if all of you foreign readers interested in German politics should look up "Überhangmandat" in their dictionaries, because SPD supporters calculated with so many Uuml;berhangmandats that they would have been on equal with the CDU which would have given Gerhard Schröder a chance to stay chancellor.
But - they didn't get enough to cover it up. Now the difference between CDU/CSU and SPD is 3 seats in the parliament, and it can still be minored to 1 - but not to equal. Which is proving one more fact - social democrats can't calculate. (The german national budget is showing).
So now everybody in Germany is talking about possible coalitions. The Blacks did clandestinely propose a coalition with the Greens (my party, if you didn't recognize...) and the Liberals - which would be political suicide at the moment. Not the same but an well-calculated suicide factor would have a coalition between Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens - the Kamikaze factor would be at hand with the Liberals this time. That's why I'm pretty sure, that there will be a big coalition between the two main opponents in the end - after the price would have been risen and whether Angela Merkel (pretty likely) or Gerhard Schröder (pretty unlikely) would be bullyed away by their own party...
So guess who will be chancellor in Germany sometime after October 2nd? Gerhard Schröder. Pretty likely.